Goldman Sachs lifts 2021 US GDP forecast to 6.2% and predicts a COVID-19 vaccine will be 'widely distributed' by mid-2021
Goldman Sachs raised its 2021 US GDP forecast to 6.2% from 5.6%, driven by expectations that at least one COVID-19 vaccine will be"widely distributed" by the end of the second quarter next year.
Strategists at the bank expect a stimulus deal worth at least $1.5 trillion will"become law by the end of August," despite policymakers' recent failure to ratify the Phase-4 fiscal package.Goldman Sachs has turned more optimistic on the outlook for US economic growth, based on its expectation that an effective COVID-19 vaccine will be"widely distributed" by the middle of next year, and has raised its projections for US GDP to 6.2% for 2021 from 5.6%.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs also expects unemployment to be less severe next year. For 2021, the bank now expects to see the jobless rate drop to 6.5% by the end of next year, down from a prior forecast of 7%. Goldman Sachs' modest upgrade is indicative of its assumption that"consumer services spending accelerates in the first half of 2021 as consumers resume activities that would previously have exposed them to COVID-19 risk.
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