It’s been widely reported that A&E delays are causing up to 500 deaths a week - but NHS leaders say they “don’t recognise these numbers”. We look at where the estimate comes from, and what other data’s available.
Crucially though, in calculating its estimate the RCEM did not compare to any previous time period. It told Full Fact this is because it believes “while some patients have always faced long waits, the scale of patients now facing extremely long waits is a new phenomenon – and every death as a result is an extra or excess death because they could have been prevented... We can see in years prior the extremely long waits for admission weren’t happening and so the deaths weren’t occurring.
Additionally, while the RCEM adjusted its estimate to account for patients waiting 8-12 hours as well as those waiting more than 12 hours, the recent FOI data from NHSE would suggest if anything this adjustment may not have gone far enough. Even if that’s not the case, there’s still a degree of uncertainty about the underlying ‘one-in-72’ estimate from the EMJ study, and whether the deaths observed after delays in care were caused by those delays.
—so it’s likely the estimate would have been lower if the RCEM had attempted to calculate “excess” deaths by comparing to previous years, as some other organisations have done.A number of different spokespeople for the NHS have said they do not recognise the RCEM’s figures.if he accepted that A&E delays have caused deaths, Professor Stephen Powis, National Medical Director of NHSE, said “it’s not unusual to see high levels of excess deaths in the winter”.
Full Fact asked NHSE for details and whether there was a timeframe for this work being conducted and published, but NHSE did not reference this in their response to us. Mr Hopson is among those due to give evidence to the Health and Social Care Committee this week.
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