BREAKING: Joe Biden leads Pres. Trump 54-45% among likely voters in Pennsylvania, new ABC News/WaPo poll finds, thanks in large part to a 2-1 lead in the Philadelphia suburbs.
to a clear lead in crucial Pennsylvania, with backing from college-educated white people and women -- notably white, moderate and suburban women -- central to his advantage in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll., for his part, is suffering attrition among his 2016 supporters; 8% of them now back Biden instead. While a small slice of the electorate, it’s a potentially important factor in a state Trump won by 44,292 votes out of nearly 6.2 million cast four years ago.
Like all pre-election polls, this survey measures current preferences among estimated likely voters; either or both can change. It’s an open question, for instance, whether Sunday’s New York TimesTrump does have ammunition in this poll, produced for ABC by: A 20-point advantage in strong enthusiasm among his supporters, 53% approval for handling the economy, solid backing in his base and a clear lead among voters who plan to cast their ballot in person on Election Day.
It can matter: Intended Election Day voters favor Trump over Biden by 60 to 39%. Those who plan to vote early, by contrast, favor Biden by a remarkable 87 to 13%. Ensuring that those early and absentee votes are cast and counted is a central concern for the Biden campaign.Unlike some elections in which a single issue dominates, a mix of concerns is at play. Twenty-five percent of Pennsylvania registered voters cite the economy as the top issue; for 18%, it’s the pandemic.
As mentioned, views on the economy, the pandemic and protests against police misconduct all are important -- attitudes on each of these independently predict candidate choice in a statistical model controlling for partisanship, ideology, race/ethnicity and other demographic variables. The gap is narrower in the suburbs, but notable nonetheless, given that suburban residents account for six in 10 likely voters in the state. The race is essentially a dead heat among suburban men -- 51 to 49%, Trump-Biden -- while it’s 59 to 41%, Biden-Trump, among suburban woman. That produces an overall result in the suburbs of 54 to 45%, exactly matching the race statewide.
Trump cruises among conservatives, with 87% support, as does Biden among liberals, 92%. Moderates divide by a wide margin in Biden’s favor, 63 to 35%, with another broad gender gap. Biden’s +7 points among moderate men balloons to +47 among moderate women, a 40-point gap.
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Today’s 2020 Election Polls: Biden Ahead Big In Pennsylvania And Key Nebraska District, Tied In North CarolinaI cover national politics for Forbes. Previously, I've written for TIME, Newsweek, the New York Daily News and VICE News. I also launched my own startup, Newsreel, a politics news platform for a young audience.
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