Barron's on MarketWatch: Key economic indicators have become weirdly inverted
As the United States enters the fourth month of a combined public health and economic crisis, data on the state of the economy and the personal finances of individuals have gone weirdly inverted—and may do so again.
This pattern confirms what other data and reports from corporate executives have shown: While there’s been some real material deprivation thanks to sky-high unemployment and pay cuts for some workers, incomes and spending have been more resilient than the headline unemployment numbers have indicated.
A probable scenario in the late summer and fall is that large numbers of jobs will be created and gross domestic product will soar as states and localities allow businesses to re-open.
“If the unemployment benefits really roll off at the end of July, it is absolutely not a given that the third quarter looks like anything special,” says Claudia Sahm, director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth.
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