After a spring and summer bolstered by massive infusions of cash from the federal government totaling over $3 trillion, the U.S. economy may have to sink or swim on its own this fall
— MM spoke with a couple of senior administration officials who both said they see little chance a fiscal stimulus deal comes anytime soon. There are not likely to be any serious talks this week, partly because White House chief of staff Mark Meadows is out for the week but mostly because the administration feels confident they have the upper hand politically following President Donald Trump’s executive actions .
In fact, we are told it could be weeks before any serious talks resume barring any significant events like Wall Street sell-offs or a run of truly dismal economic data. At the moment there is little in the way of a forcing mechanism to get the parties back together to come up with a compromise deal. Wall Street thinks a deal is coming so is simply blowing it off. But that view could be quite wrong.
There is also no prospect of more direct aid to households. MUFG’s Chris Rupkey: “We are increasingly concerned that this best-they-can do stimulus from the White House will never make it fully to the execution stage and the economy will be left to sink or swim on its own.”— Here’s what NEC Director Larry Kudlow told MM about Trump’s actions: “Besides adding some much needed assistance, I think this moves the ball toward recovery.
Kudlow added that the payroll tax deferral will be “a wage hike for the heroes who are working through this hole pandemic. And if after tax wages go up, that’s an incentive to go back to work. And politically it may well move us toward negotiations.” Trump mentioned the possibility of a capital gains and middle class tax cut this year. But that ain’t happening.
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