A record-setting drop in the U.S. economy from April to June has given way to an increasingly tepid-looking rebound as consumers appear to pull back and businesses slow rehiring, data from a variety of high-frequency sources and macro analysts indicate.
FILE PHOTO: A pedestrian with a mask walks past of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, U.S., March 18, 2020. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo
“The pace of improvement has stalled,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Mellon and a former Fed official. The improvement over May and June was “sharp,” he noted, but - as Thursday’s report of a 33% drop in second-quarter gross domestic product confirmed - it came after “a very big downdraft.”
“All we can say today is that there is evidence in high frequency data and surveys...It looks like we are seeing a slowdown,” Powell said. “It might be short-lived, it might not. The timing seems related to the spike in cases” that began in June. Employment at small businesses managed by Homebase fell, while shifts worked at a broader set of industries managed by Kronos declined by 1.1%. Analysis by Kronos showed the ratio of new hires to those laid off remains high, at 2.7 to 1, much closer to the peak of 3.4 to 1 reached in late March than to the late-June low of 1.5 to 1.
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