Nonfarm payrolls increased by 1.763 million jobs last month after a record rise of 4.791 million in June
FILE PHOTO: Hundreds of people line up outside a Kentucky Career Center hoping to find assistance with their unemployment claim in Frankfort, Kentucky, U.S. June 18, 2020. REUTERS/Bryan Woolston/File Photo
. Excluding government employment which was artificially boosted by a seasonal quirk related to local and state government education, and temporary hiring for the 2020 Census, payrolls rose 1.462 million, stepping down from 4.737 million in June. Economists believe July was probably the last month of employment gains related to the rehiring of workers after the reopening of businesses. A $600 weekly unemployment benefit supplement, which made up 20% of personal income, expired last Friday. Thousands of businesses have exhausted loans offered by the government to help with wages, which economists estimate saved around 1.3 million jobs at the program’s peak.
Slowing employment growth challenges the U.S. stock market’s expectation of a V-shaped recovery. The S&P 500 index is up nearly 50% from its March trough. Economists see a U or W-shaped recovery. The unemployment rate fell to 10.2% from 11.1% in June. It was again biased downward by people misclassifying themselves as being “employed but absent from work.” Without this error, the jobless rate would have been about 11.2%. About 62,000 people dropped out the labor force last month, contributing to the drop in the reported unemployment rate.
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