Talking the Tropics With Mike: Idalia: Florida watches & warnings in effect...Strong Franklin SW Atl

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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Idalia: Florida watches & warnings in effect...Strong Franklin SW Atl
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An overview of what's going on in the tropics....

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

A Storm Surge WATCH: Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour ... Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida ... Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to Altamaha Sound Georgia. A Tropical Storm WATCH: Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge ... Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia

REALIZE ALL THESE IMPACTS ARE BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS THAT WILL CHANGE TO AT LEAST SOME DEGREE... & UNDERSTAND IMPACTS WILL BE MUCH GREATER CLOSER TO LANDFALL . The American GFS model - which was late to the “party” - takes a strong hurricane more north with a landfall on the Easteren Panhandle of Florida early Wed. & has been slowly trending eastward though recently has stabilized. The Canadian forecast model is similar to the European. The UKMET model is slower & weaker with a landfall just about squarely on the corner of the Big Bend.Idalia is forecast to turn rather sharply eastward by Wed. night/Thu.

Moderate to strong shear out of the west has been persisting. It looks like there will be some decrease in shear the next few days & as the system approaches land & there will be some upper level ventilation thanks to a nearby trough of low pressure. In addition... Idalia will be moving in line with the mid/upper level wind vector so the effects of the shear should be lessened. And moisture remains favorable.

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