'This year's energy crisis is going to look mild once next year's kicks in. It is winter 2023-2024 that is going to be the real crisis.' 📝 Suriya Jayanti
, CEO of Russia’s Gazprom, thus estimated in mid-October that European countries could be short about one-third, 800 million cubic meters of natural gas per day during a cold spell this winter even with gas storages full now.
First, there is a high probability that China will finally come out of COVID-19 slumber. It will rock and roil energy markets when it does. China’s ongoing lockdowns resulted in a sharpin fossil fuel and power consumption, a 9.14% drop for oil and 5.8% for natural gas in April 2022 over 2021. In fact, Chinese consumption has dropped so much that it was recently arbitraging energy, buying U.S.
This means that when Europe emerges from this winter in April 2023 it will have exhausted its fuel reserves and will have a much harder time finding ways to replenish them. Over 40% of Europe’s stored gas for this winter came from Russia, despite sanctions and conflict. In 2023 and beyond, Europe will try to—will have to—source its energy imports from elsewhere, which will put it in direct competition with other countries and result in a bidding war for resources.
Protester hold a sign that reads"People over profits" as people march to demand a continued shift to renewable energy sources and reduction in fossil fuel dependence despite the current energy crisis on October 22, 2022 in Berlin, Germany.Nor can renewables yet save the day. Wind and solar farms can be built relatively quickly and cheaply, but they cannot be used to power heating at a large scale because most households are not equipped with electric heaters or heat pumps.
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