Comprehensive estimates of past and future trends in fertility across 204 nations and territories from 1950 to 2100.
By Pooja Toshniwal PahariaMar 26 2024Reviewed by Lily Ramsey, LLM In a recent study published in The Lancet, researchers presented comprehensive estimates of past and future trends in fertility across 204 nations and territories from 1950 to 2100.
About the study In the present study, researchers explored global fertility trends across 204 nations and territories between 1950 and 2021, with forecasts to 2100. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model evaluated the complete cohort fertility at the age of 50 years , modeled using the meta-regression-Bayesian, regularized, trimmed approach.
Results Between 1950 and 2021, worldwide TFR fell by more than half, from 4.8 to 2.2. Global yearly live births peaked at 142.0 million in 2016, falling to 129.0 million by 2021.
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